Payday 3 Recoups Investment but Disastrous Launch Limits Ongoing Sales

It’s a mixed bag for Payday 3, Starbreeze’s co-op shooter that saw impressive early sales but has since struggled significantly.

Payday 3’s launch was plagued with server issues that forced Starbreeze CEO Tobias Sjögren to apologise. The developer apologised again for a lack of communication, then apologised again for failing to deliver a promised patch. Despite all this, Starbreeze said Payday 3 had an impressive 3.1 million players as of October 2, a figure no doubt boosted by launching day-one on Xbox Game Pass.

But there is a question mark over Payday 3’s current popularity, which appears to have dwindled. At the time of publication, more people are playing the 10-year old Payday 2 on Steam than Payday 3.

Starbreeze and Embracer Group, which owns Payday 3 publisher Plaion and is having significant trouble of its own, both said investment in the game was recouped as of the end of September, less than two weeks after launch. But Embracer said Payday 3’s ongoing contribution to the company’s bottom line will be “below management expectations, due to a softer launch where an unforeseen error relating to external matchmaking software impacted the experience for gamers.” That’s corporate speak for predicting sales and revenue won’t be as high as hoped because the disastrous launch has driven away players.

Starbreeze itself paints a rosier picture for the future of Payday 3, while acknowledging the issues. “On September 21 Payday 3 was finally launched, a milestone for Starbreeze and a reason for the team to be proud and celebrate,” CEO Tobias Sjögren said. “Both interest in the game and initial sales exceeded our expectations, it was clear that many people have been waiting a long time to play Payday 3.

“Unfortunately, it quickly became evident that the infrastructure on which the game rests was not holding up — this despite extensive internal and external tests carried out leading up to launch. The consequence is that sales after the period are somewhat lower, but we are convinced that what we have in store will increase sales over time.

“I myself have often said that ‘you are never better than your next game’, and the events of September and October have given reason for extensive analysis, investigation, and action. The team’s focus is, and will continue to be, building Payday 3 according to plan and repairing the short-term drop in confidence that the launch entailed.

“That Payday 3, at September 30 based on preliminary total revenue, had recouped the investment Starbreeze made in the game up until launch shows both the strength of the brand and the trust placed in us from our players. One of our most important tasks is to manage and nurture this trust in us. We have a clear vision for what Payday 3 will be with our games as a service model, and we continue according to our plan where the goal is to always deliver maximum value for our players over time and results for Starbreeze.”

Up to September 30, Payday 3 brought in SEK 441 million (approximately $41.6 million) in net sales. That figure includes digital and physical sales on Steam, Xbox Series X and S, PlayStation 5, the Epic Games Store, and an initial “one-time revenue from platform owners”, which will be the payment Microsoft made to secure Payday 3 as a day-one Game Pass game. There’s an accounting reversal of debt for game financing received in there, too. Money continues to come in from Payday 2 as well, to the tune of SEK 51.6 million (approx $4.9m) in sales during the period.

Payday 3 has now entered its next phase: live service. The development team will focus on new features and improvements, Sjögren said, with “frequent” delivery of new content. In November, two new free heists will be launched for Payday 3 (two Payday 2 community favourites that have been refreshed and adapted for the new game). Along with them comes new first-person animations, weapons, skins and other improvements. Production on next year’s content is already underway, Sjögren said, with four announced DLCs “just a subset of what we plan to release”.

Meanwhile, staff who worked on the base game of Payday 3 have moved on to Project Baxter, a new upcoming cooperative multiplayer game set in a new environment. Pre-production work is ongoing. A licence partner is involved, suggesting the game is based on an existing IP.

“There is no intrinsic value in keeping things secret, as soon as the timing is right for us and our licensing partner, we look forward to telling – and showing more – of Project Baxter,” Sjögren said. “It is, as previously mentioned, one iconic brand whose DNA is characterised by collaborative experiences and storytelling in an expansive world – in a completely new environment compared to Payday but with the DNA that Starbreeze has excelled in over the past decade; cooperative multiplayer games.”

Wesley is the UK News Editor for IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at wesley_yinpoole@ign.com or confidentially at wyp100@proton.me.